Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_3/V13_300.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #300

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 300

Today's Topics:
              Re: MANY QUESTIONS
     SOLAR TERRESTRIAL BULLETIN - 10 MARCH (SOLAR UPDATE)
       MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - 2 EVENTS - 12/13 MARCH
Re: German conference highlights doubts about ESA's manned space plans

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Date: 13 Mar 91 12:54:00 GMT
From: usc!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!think.com!linus!philabs!ttidca!quad1!bohica!mcws!p0.f851.n102.z1.fidonet.org![e-mail]  (Henry Spencer)
Subject: Re: MANY QUESTIONS

From: [e-mail] (Henry Spencer)
Path: wciu!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!usc!samsung!rex!ukma!rutgers!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utzoo!henry
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: MANY QUESTIONS
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 13 Mar 91 04:54:35 GMT
[Transliterated to lower case to make it at least semi-readable!  Please
don't post long articles in SCREAMING UPPERCASE.]

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] writes:
>4.  more morbid curiosity...since the challenger explosion has there been any
>effort to redesign the shuttle orbiter so that the crew cabin could be used in
>an emergency splashdown?  maybe something like the present crew cabin with its
>own parachute system and heat sheild? ...

The idea is not ridiculous, but it would require massive redesign, and
the extra mass might well wipe out the shuttle's payload entirely.  The
ESA designers working on Hermes came to the same conclusion as NASA:
bringing the whole cabin down is difficult and costly, and probably
not worth it.  (ESA has gone for ejection seats on Hermes, over the
protests of the astronauts, who think the correct solution is not
to fit an escape system at all.)

>5. on the lighter side...are there any shuttle missions planned that call for
>carrying the external tanks into leo? ...   i quess i really want
>to know why this isn't being done already.

The Gamma Ray Imaging Telescope project has looked at the idea, although I
don't believe it is scheduled to fly any time soon.  Putting the tank
into orbit costs payload, it will come down quickly due to air drag unless
precautions are taken, space debris will puncture it quickly, and its own
insulation will crumble and create more debris, so nobody is going to put
up a tank until there is a specific project that wants it and can invest
enough effort to deal with the problems.

>...are there any plans which call for 2 orbiters to be flown at the same time
>and rendevous with each other?

No.  It would serve no terribly useful purpose and would overstrain support
facilities that are only just adequate for a single flight at a time.

>7.  are there any plans for joint missions with nasa's russian counterpart?

There's talk about flying a cosmonaut on the shuttle and an astronaut on Mir.

>... the shuttle
>could rendevous with mir, do some international good-will type stuff, maybe
>even some real science, and then, after some type of eva the astronaut would
>come home with the shuttle.  is there anything preventing such a mission?

Yes:  the shuttle fleet is too busy.  This would have to be a dedicated
mission.  There are also some practical problems with docking adapters
and such, which are not standardized.

> when (or if) we send a manned mission to mars are there any plans to leave
>something like the space telescope there?

Not at present.  It would cost too much and there are too few advantages.
Increasing the baseline for parallax measurements by 50% is not worth it.

>whenever there is a flare alert it makes me wonder what precautions the mir
>cosmonauts take to avoid lethal exposure...

None that I know of, beyond avoiding EVAs and the emergency option of
coming down in the attached Soyuz immediately.  Mir is within the Van Allen
belts and is protected from the worst of a flare.

>... what sort of problem will solar
>flares present to the mars mission and its crew...

Serious.  Some sort of shelter will be needed, although the weight is a
troublesome nuisance.
--
"But this *is* the simplified version   | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
for the general public."     -S. Harris |  [e-mail]  utzoo!henry


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------------------------------

Date: 10 Mar 91 16:30:00 GMT
From: agate!linus!philabs!ttidca!quad1!bohica!mcws!p0.f851.n102.z1.fidonet.org![e-mail]  (CARY OLER)
Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL BULLETIN - 10 MARCH (SOLAR UPDATE)

From: [e-mail] (CARY OLER)
Path: wciu!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!usc!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!ucbvax!HG.ULeth.CA!oler
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL BULLETIN - 10 MARCH (SOLAR UPDATE)
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 10 Mar 91 08:30:02 GMT

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                        SOLAR TERRESTRIAL BULLETIN

                              10 March, 1991

                    Updated Solar Activity Information

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


UPDATED SOLAR ACTIVITY INFORMATION

     No major flares occurred on 09 March, although significant spot
activity has been observed in Region 6538.  This region, which was the
source of strong solar activity on 07 March has become slightly more
compact.  Spots within this region have increased from 63 on 09 March to
107 on 10 March.  High levels of shear still appear to exist in this
region.  Some magnetic complexity is also apparent in this beta-gamma
system.

     Region 6538 is now centered at a location of S23E32 and is now capable
of producing moderate to high terrestrial impacts if a significant major
solar flare erupts.  Proton activity won't be a real threat until after 12
or 13 March.  However, geomagnetic and auroral impacts could be high if a
strong solar flare erupts anytime between now and approximately 18 or 19
March.  Proton impacts will be possible until after this region passes
beyond the west limb, which is expected sometime near 20 March.  PCA
activity will also be possible anytime after about 13 March until near 20
March.

     A 245 MHz solar radio noise storm was in progress throughout all of 09
March.  This noise storm is most likely associated with Region 6538, which
has shown some high spot activity recently.

     Major flaring is still expected to occur from Region 6538.  Major
M-class flaring is likely to be observed.  Isolated major X-class flares
are also possible.  Minor M-class flaring is a certainty from this region.
Flare sizes could still reach a 3B optical rating.

     Minor to major geomagnetic storming has been observed several times
during the UT day on 09 March over high latitudes.  Activity increased to
major storm levels over the high latitudes at approximately 01:50 UT on 10
March.  Activity has since subsided somewhat, although pulses of minor to
major magnetic storming is still expected to occur over the high latitude
regions over the next 24 hours.

     Middle latitudes have experienced a couple of brief periods of minor
geomagnetic storming.  However, overall activity has not yet surpassed
storm level thresholds over the middle latitudes.  A sudden magnetic impulse
was observed over middle latitude magnetic observatories at 22:46 UT on 09
March.  The intensity of this SI ranged from approximately 30 to 45 gammas.
Low to moderate intensity minor storming was observed over middle latitudes
between 01:50 UT and 05:30 UT on 10 March.  However, no significant rapid
magnetic excursions were observed with this activity.  The geomagnetic field
over the middle latitudes has declined to generally very active levels.
Minor storm periods are still possible (if not expected).

     Auroral activity increased after 01:30 UT on 10 March.  Moderate
auroral activity was observed over middle latitude regions.  The auroral
oval has shifted optically southward.  The leading edge of the oval was
measured to be at an elevation of approximately 50 degrees above the
northern horizon at N49W112.  A diffuse auroral arc was the primary activity
observed during the observation.  No further significant migration of the
auroral oval is expected over the next 24 hours.  Migration back to the
higher latitudes will occur on 11 and 12 March.  Overall geomagnetic and
auroral activity will subside on 12 March (barring any significant solar
activity).

     HF radio signals have suffered some degradation due to the recent
burst of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Areas most heavily affected are
the high latitudes and northerly middle latitudes.  Radio signal paths
which enter or cross through the auroral zone (ex. polar or high latitude
paths) have experienced moderate fading and increased absorption.  Auroral
flutter is very apparant in the high and middle latitude signals.  So far,
the flutter fading has not been too intense (judging by the reports
received so far).

     VHF auroral backscatter communications may be possible over the
northerly middle and high latitude regions.  Best opportunities for
DX contacts exist using CW.

     Please report any DX contacts on the VHF bands to "[e-mail]".
And again, reports of auroral activity sightings can also be directed to
the above address.  Thanks, to all those who send in reports.


**  End of Bulletin  **


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------------------------------

Date: 13 Mar 91 16:23:00 GMT
From: agate!linus!philabs!ttidca!quad1!bohica!mcws!p0.f851.n102.z1.fidonet.org![e-mail]  (CARY OLER)
Subject: MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - 2 EVENTS - 12/13 MARCH

From: [e-mail] (CARY OLER)
Path: wciu!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!pacific.mps.ohio-state.edu!linac!att!ucbvax!HG.ULeth.CA!oler
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - 2 EVENTS - 12/13 MARCH
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 13 Mar 91 08:23:32 GMT

                        --  MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT  --

                                MARCH 13, 1991

                              Flare Event Summary
                           Potential Impact Forecast


                                    --------


MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY

     Two major solar flares have occurred over the past 6 to 24 hours.  The
first major event began at 12:40 UT on 12 March, peaked at 12:46 UT and
ended shortly thereafter at 12:58 UT on 12 March.  This major flare
attained a class X1.7/2B rating and was associated with a strong Type II
sweep and strong radio emissions at 245 MHz and 10 cm.  This flare was
associated with a 2,000 s.f.u. (solar flux unit) Tenflare which lasted 11
minutes.  A 55,000 s.f.u. burst was also observed at 245 MHz.  This event
is believed responsible for producing a small SID/SWF.  This major flare
originated from Region 6545 at a location of S07E59.  The event lasted a
relatively short 18 minutes.

     Another major high-level M-class flare began at 02:53 UT on 13 March,
peaked at 03:05 UT and ended at 03:11 UT on 13 March.  This event reached a
class M9.0/2B rating and was associated with a moderate intensity Type II
sweep.  It is not yet certain what region this flare originated from.
There is some dispute whether this event originated from Region 6545 or
6538.  There have been conflicting reports.  Some communications problems
have also contributed to the uncertainty.

     Region 6545 (now located at S09E51 at 00:00 UT on 13 March) is
optically and magnetically complex.  It possesses a potent Beta-Gamma-Delta
magnetic configuration and encompasses 23 visible spots in an optical DKI
configuration.  This region was responsible for the X-class flare mentioned
above and is capable of producing high-level major M-class flares and/or a
major isolated X-class flare.

     Region 6538 (which produced very energetic flaring earlier last week)
is also optically and magnetically complex and appears quite formidable in
white light as well as in H-alpha light.  This region also contains a
magnetic Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration, but has been unusually dormant in
flare-activity lately.  This is expected to change at any time, however.
Frequent M-class flaring and possible high-level major M-class and/or
isolated X-class flares are also possible from this region.  A significant
major solar flare from Region 6538 could produce high terrestrial impacts
as well as potentially strong proton and PCA activity.

     A weak proton enhancement was observed near 17:00 UT on 12 March with
protons greater than 10 MeV.  The peak flux attained was about 2 p.f.u..


POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT FORECAST

     Todays first major flare at 12:46 UT on 12 March will not have a
terrestrial impact.  It is uncertain whether the latter major event will
have a terrestrial impact.  The location of this flare is vital in
determining the potential impacts, and the location of this flare is still
uncertain.  If the flare originated from Region 6545, no terrestrial
impacts will likely be observed.  If the flare originated in Region 6538,
which has just now crossed into the western hemisphere, a weak terrestrial
impact may be possible on 15 March.  More significant major flaring from
Region 6538 will be required before potentially strong terrestrial impacts
might occur.

     The Potential Major Flare Warning remains in effect throughout this
week (and possibly longer).  Regions 6538 and 6545 are capable of producing
major solar flares.  Region 6538 is capable of producing proton activity
with major energetic solar flares.  Polar latitudes and satellite
operators/users should be on the alert for possible proton and PCA activity.
Polar radio blackouts are likely if a major proton flare erupts from Region
6538.  PCA activity could keep polar radio blackout conditions constant for
many hours (or possibly a few days if the event is intense).

     Further updates and/or alerts will be posted as needed over the coming
week.


**  End of Alert  **


--
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------------------------------

Date: 13 Mar 91 09:01:00 GMT
From: agate!linus!philabs!ttidca!quad1!bohica!mcws!p0.f851.n102.z1.fidonet.org![e-mail]  (Nick Szabo)
Subject: Re: German conference highlights doubts about ESA's manned space plans

From: [e-mail] (Nick Szabo)
Path: wciu!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!usc!rutgers!mit-eddie!uw-beaver!zephyr.ens.tek.com!tektronix!sequent!crg5!szabo
Newsgroups: sci.space
Subject: Re: German conference highlights doubts about ESA's manned space plans
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
Date: 13 Mar 91 01:01:49 GMT
In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Dave Smith) writes:
> >[I write]
> >Or, if you prefer not to pay the $1,000,000++/hour cost of an EVA, you
> >could make sure it works before you launch it.
> >
>
>This is a screamer.  What do you do at Sequent, Nick?  Work in marketing?

This is a screamer. :-)  I work in testing, making sure our products work.
Not to brag, but Sequent's main selling point is our quality statistics,
such as up-time.   Sequent repairmen are about as common as Maytag
repairmen. :-)  Even so, when needed they can do the job for about
1/20,000th the cost of our vaunted astronauts.

Now back to the regularly scheduled space.flamefest.  :-)



--
Nick Szabo            [e-mail]
"If you want oil, drill lots of wells" -- J. Paul Getty
The above opinions are my own and not related to those of any
organization I may be affiliated with.


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------------------------------

End of SPACE Digest V13 #300
*******************